Global online retail sales are forecasted to grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028, with significant regional variations in e-commerce maturity and growth. Despite the rise of e-commerce, 76% of global retail sales will still be offline in 2028, emphasizing the need for robust omnichannel strategies.
30 May 2024 – Forrester has forecasted that global online retail sales will rise significantly from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%. According to the Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028 report, which offers a comprehensive five-year forecast for total, online, and offline retail sales across 40 countries, 76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028. This highlights the necessity for retailers to enhance their omnichannel strategies to ensure a seamless shopping experience both online and offline.
The report reveals significant variations in e-commerce maturity across different regions. Advanced economies such as the US, the UK, and South Korea demonstrate higher maturity due to greater internet penetration and digital literacy. However, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America are rapidly advancing, driven by increasing smartphone adoption and mobile commerce.
Regional Insights
Asia-Pacific
In Asia-Pacific, the top five countries — China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia — are expected to see online retail sales grow from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion by 2028. China and South Korea, with e-commerce penetration rates exceeding 40%, will lead the region. Southeast Asia’s top six countries — Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore — are projected to see retail e-commerce sales rise from $93 billion in 2023 to $193 billion by 2028, capturing 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia leads in online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore, while the Philippines and Vietnam are anticipated to achieve a CAGR of over 20%.
Americas
In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total retail sales. Canadian online retail sales are projected to reach $83 billion by 2028, although Canada trails behind the US in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density and slower consumer adoption. Latin America’s top six countries — Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile — are expected to see online retail sales grow from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion by 2028.
Europe
Western European countries, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, are anticipated to see online retail sales increase from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion by 2028, with penetration rising from 15% to 20%. The UK will remain the largest market, followed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. In Eastern Europe, online retail sales for the top five countries — Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary — are forecasted to grow from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the way.
Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester, commented, “The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years. However, e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary vastly by region. Retailers and brands must therefore understand the key drivers of retail and e-commerce growth in their priority markets and tailor their strategies accordingly to succeed.”
