Terry KS Visa’s Global Economic Outlook for 2026 forecasts 2.7% global GDP growth, masking significant structural changes driven by AI adoption, fragmented trade networks and shifting investment patterns. The report highlights a transition toward investment-led growth and faster AI uptake among small businesses reshaping global commerce.
MALAYSIA, 14 JANUARY 2026 – Visa has released its Global Economic Outlook for 2026, projecting global GDP growth of 2.7% amid what it describes as a period of deep structural transformation rather than economic stagnation. While the headline growth figure appears stable, Visa’s analysis suggests the global economy is being fundamentally reshaped by accelerating artificial intelligence adoption, reconfigured trade networks and shifting investment priorities.
According to Visa Business and Economic Insights, consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, growing 2.4% in 2026, though at a slower pace than the previous year. Inflation is forecast to ease slightly, creating room for business investment to take the lead as companies increase spending on AI infrastructure and technology amid reduced policy uncertainty. This transition from consumption-led to investment-led growth is expected to support a rebound in commercial payments activity.
The report highlights major changes in global trade dynamics, with intra-regional trade accounting for two-thirds of global trade growth as companies shorten supply chains and diversify suppliers to manage geopolitical risks and tariffs. This restructuring is contributing to increased business travel, particularly in mining and technology sectors, and driving a faster recovery in cross-border commercial payments compared to domestic corporate transactions.
Visa also noted that small businesses are adopting generative AI faster than consumers, with AI-enabled firms recording stronger transaction growth. The technology is enabling smaller teams to scale operations more efficiently, potentially redefining traditional notions of small business competitiveness. While North America leads in overall AI adoption, faster uptake in other regions suggests global markets could produce the next generation of AI-driven enterprises.
Despite demographic pressures and ongoing policy uncertainty, Visa’s outlook points to resilient economic fundamentals underpinned by stable consumer demand, rising business investment and broad-based AI adoption. The company believes organizations that adapt quickly to these structural shifts will be best positioned to capture emerging growth opportunities.